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Joël Marbet
- 14 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3299Details
- Abstract
- How does heterogeneity in banks’ interest-rate risk exposure shape monetary policy transmission? We develop a quantitative macroeconomic model of heterogeneous banks to answer this question. We establish an irrelevance result: differences in interest-rate risk exposure between fixed- and variable-rate banking systems matter for transmission only when bank solvency concerns become relevant. Calibrating the model to the euro area, we show that idiosyncratic default risk pushes a substantial share of banks toward the solvency threshold, making heterogeneity quantitatively important. When policy rates rise, fixed-rate banks suffer net interest margin compression—funding costs increase while legacy loan income stays unchanged—eroding capital and triggering sharper deleveraging. The lending elasticity to monetary policy is one-third larger in fixed-rate economies. The effects extend to financial stability: tightening raises bank failure rates in fixed-rate systems while lowering them in variable-rate systems. The results provide a rationale for macroprudential and monetary policy coordination and for monetary policy gradualism.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)